My original e-mail request:

Bob,

I replied to George Hill yesterday that I would still like to see the specific formula and the actual data that went into the development of the number that you published for YTD visitor use in your most recent grant request, i.e. 48,392 visitor use days from Oct. 1, 2003 through April 14, 2004. The information you provided yesterday, while interesting, does not help me understand your calculation process.

I would also like to know why your office has now published three different VUD counts for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002 that I know of. Here is a table listing the numbers you have published:

Thank You,

Ed Tobin

The BLM response from July 20th:

1.  The visitation numbers for this year’s grant were obtained from the RMIS (recreation management information system) program.  RMIS is a database program for reporting recreation information which includes visitation.  The differences in reporting numbers may have occurred since the grants are due before the calculations have been entered.  It is recommended that visitation numbers be entered monthly or quarterly, however a couple of years ago they were generally entered at the end of the year; therefore, actual numbers varied throughout the year.  Additionally, over the past five years or so, there have been several individuals entering visitation numbers into the system, each using their own calculating system.

2.  How did we arrive at 48,392 visitors to the CCMA from October 1, 2003 to April 4, 2004:

 Traffic Counters:

Clear Creek Entrance:             12,193

Idria Reservoir Entrance:          2,381

Total                                        14,574

Single person in vehicle                                                                                         14,574

90% of 14,574 = 13,113 (the number of vehicles with 2 people)                         13,113

75% of 14,574 = 10, 930 (the number of vehicles spending 2 days)                    10,930

50% of 10,930 = 5,465 (these vehicles had 3 people spending 2 days)                 5,465

10% of 14,574 = 1,457(the number of vehicles with 5 people spending 1 day)    1,457

Special Permitted Events in Clear Creek:

Timekeepers: 4 days, 150 participants/non-participants                                          600

Racers Under the Son:  4 days, 100 participants/non-participants                          400

Special Permitted Events Staged from Salinas Ramblers Property:

Quicksilver: 4 days, 425 participants/non-participants                                         1,700

Molina Ghost Run: 3 days, 175 participants/non-participants                                 525

Visitors accessing CCMA from Private Property:

100 visitors per month for 6 months                                                                        600

TOTAL NUMBERS OF VISITORS:                                                               48,392

Comments

1. So, we are to believe that one to two years after the fact three different people go to the BLM database in 2003 and 2004, pull numbers and they come up with three different results???  Give me a break.  The BLM database can't be that screwed up, can it?

2. The actual total of all these numbers is 49,364. They did not divide the counter totals by 2 to account for people both entering and leaving Clear Creek.  The Clear Creek counter number is from 9/01/03, not 10/01/03.  Not sure exactly how they came up with the New Idria count since there was data missing from 10/01/03 through 10/17/04 and again from 01/13/04 to 02/10/04. Must have guesstimated and high at that, I believe. 

Based on the people I have greeted, I find it very difficult to believe that 75% of them entering Clear Creek stayed two days not to mention that 50% of them had a third person with them.  I have just not seen this kind of use pattern and in fact their daily data from March, 2004 does not support this model.